Tonight presents us with an absolute classic when it comes to tough calls on the weather.
>From sat loops, forecast discussions, and looking at the sky, it looks like there's some chance that the puffy low clouds will clear tonight. This raises the possibility of a modest MB session - maybe binos plus a small refractor, lots of puddles and dew to contend with. But at least it would be a chance to defy the weather gods.
But, as always when we get a break between storms, there's a nice area of cirrus offshore, and it's really hard to say whether or not it'll come over us tonight. Is it dissipating as it encounters our weak ridge? If not, how soon will it start to stream overhead? IR loop and WV show just enough to make it really hard to say.
In other words, it's a typical situation for the winter of 2005-2006. At least it's Wednesday, so if I do decide to head up to MB, I won't have to make my usual embarassing phone call to the rangers. I'm tired of being Hopeless Optimism Guy on their answering machine.
Jamie's comment about it being like Seattle was really interesting. Yeah, I agree, the last few winters have been rather PacNW-ish. Of course, there was a time in my life when I moved to the PacNW specifically because of its precipitation. I wanted to be near the Cascade Mountains, which are the only range in the lower 48 with significant glaciers. Can't grow glaciers under clear skies. Of course, it's tough to get up peaks in places like the Cascades when the weather is so poor so much of the time. I'm really glad that I've done a little bit of mountaineering, because that's a weather dependent hobby if ever there was one. Bad weather equals extra hazard, not just frustration. So, it sort of builds character about weather. Sort of. Mostly, waiting for weather windows is hard and grinds you down. Hard pounding - and who can keep pounding the longest?
However - and I've talked about this before under the heading of 'OI Poker', there is almost nothing as sweet as 'getting away with it' during a weather window. Humans love to dance with luck, and observing is another of those dances that we do. Life is luck. Life is all about our interaction with luck, our attempts to understand it (or not), to circumscribe it, to exploit it. To take credit for achievements that actually owe a lot to luck. To accept it, to rail against it. These afternoons at work, looking at those bloody satellite loops, making these endless judgement calls, they're a little microcosm of life. File that under 'why I observe'.
Thinking back to the time I spent two weeks in a tent in the Alps, waiting for the weather to improve,
Marek
Received on Wed Mar 29 15:53:23 2006